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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 38

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(:12) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.23 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 38, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.75 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model