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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 48

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Cleveland Browns 8

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 7-T.Morstead punts 32 yards to CLE 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 84-G.Larvadain MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-28-D.Luter at CLE 18.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.51 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 48, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.66 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model