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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2025-11-30 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread -5.5 O/U 35.5

Win Probability

SF
65.9%
CLE
34.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SF: Shedeur Sanders (CLE) -0.319 vs Brock Purdy (SF) +0.185 EPA/dropback
  • CLE offense: -0.204 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.091 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • CLE defense: -0.133 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.114 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Wind 20 mph

Predicted Final Score

SF 23
–
CLE 17
Projected margin: SF by 6 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

SF

Eddy Pineiro K Out Hamstring
Sam Okuayinonu DE Out Ankle
Tatum Bethune LB Out Ankle

CLE

Alex Wright DE Out Quadricep
Brenden Bates TE Out Ankle
Adin Huntington DT Out Quadricep
Jerome Ford RB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 26
–
CLE 8

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:15 TD SF (8:15) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – CLE 0
  • Q2 00:47 TD CLE (:47) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass deep left to 44-H.Fannin for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – CLE 6
  • Q2 00:04 FG SF (:04) 14-M.Gay 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 10 – CLE 8
  • Q3 01:33 TD SF (1:33) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 16 – CLE 8
  • Q4 11:09 TD SF (11:09) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 15-J.Jennings for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 23 – CLE 8
  • Q4 04:13 FG SF (4:13) 14-M.Gay 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 26 – CLE 8

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 19%

    (13:19) 7-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to CLE 13, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 3 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (10:40) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to SF 18, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 9-S.Moore pushed ob at CLE 16 for 66 yards (86-B.Whiteheart).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 90%

    (3:02) 72-K.Leveston reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins right guard to SF 21 for -1 yards (6-M.Mustapha, 92-J.Elliott).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 9 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:38) 7-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to CLE 36, Center-46-J.Weeks. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 38 for 2 yards (31-I.Guerendo; 28-D.Luter). FUMBLES (31-I.Guerendo), and recovers at CLE 39.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 46%

    (6:28) 7-T.Morstead punts 30 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:21) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to SF 21, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 9-S.Moore to SF 22 for 1 yard (86-B.Whiteheart; 42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 13 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:14) 7-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to CLE 23, Center-46-J.Weeks. 84-G.Larvadain MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 24.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (7:08) 74-T.Jenkins reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 44-H.Fannin. 44-H.Fannin FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 32, RECOVERED by SF-57-L.Gifford at CLE 32.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:38) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to CLE 49, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 9-S.Moore to CLE 47 for 2 yards (31-D.McMillon; 41-C.Edmonds).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 11 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 25%

    (13:35) 7-T.Morstead punts 32 yards to CLE 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 84-G.Larvadain MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-28-D.Luter at CLE 18.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 16 at the 48
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 25%

    (7:30) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders sacked at CLE 42 for -10 yards (56-K.White).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 9 at the 13 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%

    (4:13) 14-M.Gay 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.