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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 67

Cleveland Browns 8 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 74-T.Jenkins reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 44-H.Fannin. 44-H.Fannin FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 32, RECOVERED by SF-57-L.Gifford at CLE 32.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.69 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model