Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 66

Cleveland Browns 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(10:40) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to SF 18, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 9-S.Moore pushed ob at CLE 16 for 66 yards (86-B.Whiteheart).

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP

53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.27 EP
47% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model