Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 59

Cleveland Browns 8 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(12:21) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to SF 21, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 9-S.Moore to SF 22 for 1 yard (86-B.Whiteheart; 42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold).

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.79 EP
60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model