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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 13

San Francisco 49ers 23 – Cleveland Browns 8

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 14-M.Gay 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.61 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 13, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 23, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model