4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 40

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(6:28) 7-T.Morstead punts 30 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.38 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.91 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP