Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 48

Cleveland Browns 8 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(7:30) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders sacked at CLE 42 for -10 yards (56-K.White).

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP

What Happened

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.69 EP
75% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.32 EP

KICK -1.30 EP

25% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
75% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.65 EP