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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 57

Tennessee Titans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 15

What Actually Happened

(5:28) 3-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback. JAX-11-P.Washington was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.89 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 57, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model