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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 50

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(10:59) 13-B.Pinion punts 32 yards to NYJ 18, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.54 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 50, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model