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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 44

New York Jets 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 14-A.McNamara punts 37 yards to ATL 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 14-J.Agnew MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers at ATL 2.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.42 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 44, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model