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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 14

New York Jets 14 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(13:26) 6-N.Folk 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.82 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 14, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model