4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 89

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(11:02) 5-B.Anger punts 62 yards to KC 27, Center-44-T.Sieg. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 37 for 10 yards (89-B.Spann-Ford).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.34 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 89, worth -4.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.58 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP