4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
KC Away

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Brian Schottenheimer
Thursday 2025-11-27 · 16:30 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 53.5

Win Probability

KC
53.7%
DAL
46.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.168 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.143 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • KC defense: -0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.156 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.139 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

KC 27
–
DAL 24
Projected margin: KC by 3 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

KC

Noah Gray TE Out Concussion
Trey Smith G Out Ankle
Christian Roland-Wallace CB Out Back

DAL

Tyler Guyton T Out Ankle
Caelen Carson CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 28
–
DAL 31

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:10 TD KC (13:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – DAL 0
  • Q1 06:55 TD DAL (6:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-G.Karlaftis]. KC 7 – DAL 6
  • Q1 00:05 TD KC (:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – DAL 7
  • Q2 10:27 FG DAL (10:27) 17-B.Aubrey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. KC 14 – DAL 10
  • Q2 03:17 TD DAL (3:17) (Shotgun) 43-M.Davis up the middle for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 14 – DAL 16
  • Q3 04:13 FG DAL (4:13) 17-B.Aubrey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. KC 14 – DAL 20
  • Q4 14:56 TD KC (14:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – DAL 20
  • Q4 11:21 TD DAL (11:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 33-J.Williams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 21 – DAL 26
  • Q4 05:20 FG DAL (5:20) 17-B.Aubrey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. KC 21 – DAL 31
  • Q4 03:30 TD KC (3:30) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 5-M.Brown for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [41-D.Ezeiruaku]. KC 27 – DAL 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 99%

    (:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 42%

    (12:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 87-J.Ferguson to KC 38 for 10 yards (32-N.Bolton; 34-M.Edwards).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 80%

    (10:27) 17-B.Aubrey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 16 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 44%

    (6:10) 14-M.Araiza punts 32 yards to DAL 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 19 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 32%

    (:18) 14-M.Araiza punts 38 yards to DAL 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 39%

    (12:26) 14-M.Araiza punts 46 yards to DAL 3, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-38-K.Knowles.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (11:02) 5-B.Anger punts 62 yards to KC 27, Center-44-T.Sieg. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 37 for 10 yards (89-B.Spann-Ford).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (8:50) (Shotgun) 60-H.Nourzad reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 12-J.Wiley to 50 for 4 yards (59-K.Murray).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 4 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 52%

    (7:12) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to DAL 4, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-38-K.Knowles.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 8 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%

    (4:13) 17-B.Aubrey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 99%

    (14:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:35) 14-M.Araiza punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback. PENALTY on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 20.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (5:20) 17-B.Aubrey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.