4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 18

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 17-B.Aubrey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.40 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 18, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 28, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model