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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 3

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(14:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.51 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 3, worth +0.27 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model