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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 31

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(10:27) 17-B.Aubrey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.35 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 31, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 41, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP