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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 49

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(12:26) 14-M.Araiza punts 46 yards to DAL 3, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-38-K.Knowles.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.04 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.95 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP