4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 48

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(12:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 87-J.Ferguson to KC 38 for 10 yards (32-N.Bolton; 34-M.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.17 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model