4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 47

Detroit Lions 14 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(11:13) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs right guard to GB 49 for -2 yards (1-M.Parsons, 58-I.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.10 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model