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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Thursday 2025-11-27 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

GB
53.8%
DET
46.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.154 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET offense: +0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Jared Goff (DET) +0.131 vs Jordan Love (GB) +0.212 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

GB 25
–
DET 23
Projected margin: GB by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

GB

Karl Brooks DT Out Ankle
Lukas Van Ness DE Out Foot
Jayden Reed WR Out Foot
Savion Williams WR Out Foot
Keisean Nixon CB Questionable Neck
Nate Hobbs CB Questionable Knee
Quay Walker LB Questionable Neck
Matthew Golden WR Questionable Wrist

DET

Graham Glasgow C Out Knee
Kalif Raymond WR Out Ankle
Brock Wright TE Out Neck
Kerby Joseph S Out Knee
Joshua Paschal DE Out Back
Taylor Decker T Questionable Shoulder
Marcus Davenport DE Questionable Shoulder
Penei Sewell T Questionable Ankle
Sione Vaki RB Questionable Ankle
Terrion Arnold CB Questionable Concussion
Miles Frazier G Questionable Knee
Isaac TeSlaa WR Questionable Hand
Tate Ratledge G Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 31
–
DET 24

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:17 FG GB (9:17) 17-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 3 – DET 0
  • Q2 14:25 TD GB (14:25) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 13-D.Wicks for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 9 – DET 0
  • Q2 07:58 TD DET (7:58) (Shotgun) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 5-D.Montgomery. 5-D.Montgomery right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 10 – DET 6
  • Q2 02:16 TD GB (2:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – DET 7
  • Q2 00:31 TD DET (:31) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 17 – DET 13
  • Q3 10:38 TD GB (10:38) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 9-C.Watson for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 23 – DET 14
  • Q3 07:32 TD DET (7:32) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 18-I.TeSlaa for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 24 – DET 20
  • Q3 01:50 TD GB (1:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 13-D.Wicks for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 30 – DET 21
  • Q4 03:02 FG DET (3:02) 39-J.Bates 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. GB 31 – DET 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 10 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 86%

    (9:17) 17-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (8:27) 3-J.Fox punts 46 yards to GB 17, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 87-R.Doubs.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 5 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (6:47) 19-D.Whelan punts 62 yards to DET 16, Center-42-M.Orzech. 85-T.Kennedy to DET 37 for 21 yards (33-E.Williams; 54-K.Welch).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 91%

    (14:25) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 13-D.Wicks for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (2:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 44%

    (11:13) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs right guard to GB 49 for -2 yards (1-M.Parsons, 58-I.McDuffie).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 92%

    (10:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Williams.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (9:13) 19-D.Whelan punts 72 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 13 at the 13 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (3:02) 39-J.Bates 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 3 at the 45 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 50%

    (1:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 13-D.Wicks to DET 29 for 16 yards (32-B.Branch) [54-A.McNeill].