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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Detroit Lions
4th & 3 at the 21
Detroit Lions 21 – Green Bay Packers 31
What Actually Happened
(10:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Williams.
The Three Options
GO
+2.05 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.80 EP
- 50% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
KICK
+1.66 EP
- 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
- 8% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT
-0.00 EP
- Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
