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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 13

Detroit Lions 21 – Green Bay Packers 31

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 39-J.Bates 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.86 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model