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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 45

Green Bay Packers 31 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 13-D.Wicks to DET 29 for 16 yards (32-B.Branch) [54-A.McNeill].

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +0.96 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 45, worth -1.75 EP
KICK -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model