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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 54

Cincinnati Bengals 9 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(:44) 8-R.Rehkow punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.31 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 54, worth -2.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 16, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model