Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 76

New York Giants 0 – New England Patriots 10

(3:49) 12-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to NE 22, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 25-M.Jones to NE 39 for 17 yards (47-N.Hewitt; 46-Z.Barnes).

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.78 EP
70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 76, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model