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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 55

Tennessee Titans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 25

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 3-J.Hekker punts 32 yards to JAX 23, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.91 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 55, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 16, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model