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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Buffalo Bills
4th & 2 at the 23
Buffalo Bills 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7
What Actually Happened
(1:29) 26-Ty.Johnson up the middle to PIT 21 for 2 yards (97-Ca.Heyward).
The Three Options
GO
+2.14 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.40 EP
- 42% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.02 EP
KICK
+1.10 EP
- 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
- 13% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT
-0.16 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
