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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 66

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(7:30) 3-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to BUF 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 24, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP