Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 80

New Orleans Saints 0 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 32-K.Kroeger punts 46 yards to MIA 34, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-43-M.Davis. PENALTY on NO-43-M.Davis, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.37 EP
65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 80, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model