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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 83

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(:55) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 14-M.Wilson (8-S.Dennis).

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.32 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 83, worth -2.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 41, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model