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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 30

Chicago Bears 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 15

What Actually Happened

(1:15) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 10-L.Burden.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
What Happened
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +1.31 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.12 EP