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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:26) 39-M.Haack punts 48 yards to TB 22, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-K.Johnson to TB 30 for 8 yards (47-C.Tindall).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.32 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP