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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 1

Buffalo Bills 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PIT-97-Ca.Heyward, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +3.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.44 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.35 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model