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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 55

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(14:05) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to ARI 12, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 12 for no gain (19-K.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.73 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 55, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model