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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 47

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to ARI 7, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-19-K.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.87 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 13, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model