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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 20 at the 79

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 39-M.Haack punts 44 yards to TB 35, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-K.Johnson pushed ob at 50 for 15 yards (36-K.Crawford).

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.90 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 36, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model