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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 38

New York Giants 7 – New England Patriots 30

What Actually Happened

(10:50) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete short middle to 84-T.Johnson (15-M.Mapu) [2-H.Landry].

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.87 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model