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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 37

Chicago Bears 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 9

What Actually Happened

(:56) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 84-C.Loveland ran ob at PHI 30 for 7 yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.81 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 37, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.28 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model