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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 65

New Orleans Saints 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 32-K.Kroeger punts 47 yards to MIA 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.54 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 65, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP