Fourth-Down Analyzer
Every 4th-down decision from every game this week, priced in expected points by the same submodels shown on each game's own page, just gathered here one week at a time instead of one game at a time. The objective: see which calls matched what the numbers say and which ones cost the most, across the whole week at a glance.
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Q1 SEA 4th & 7 at the 14Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%
(12:02) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
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Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 46%
(7:18) 17-B.Baringer punts 34 yards to SEA 10, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
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Q1 SEA 4th & 6 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(6:15) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to NE 36, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
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Q1 SEA 4th & 15 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(:32) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to NE 32, Center-41-C.Stoll. 25-M.Jones to NE 32 for no gain (42-D.Thomas).
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Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(14:18) 17-B.Baringer punts 39 yards to SEA 24, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 14 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 91%
(11:20) 5-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
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Q2 NE 4th & 12 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(9:23) 17-B.Baringer punts 38 yards to SEA 29, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. ** Injury Update: NE-48-J.Tavai has returned to the game.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 42Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 51%
(5:05) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to NE 2, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-32-V.Jones.
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Q2 NE 4th & 12 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(3:03) 17-B.Baringer punts 55 yards to SEA 33, Center-47-J.Ashby. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 43 for 10 yards (91-E.Ponder).
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Q2 SEA 4th & 3 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 89%
(:16) 5-J.Myers 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
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Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 61Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 54%
(14:08) 17-B.Baringer punts 52 yards to SEA 9, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
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Q3 SEA 4th & 9 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 90%
(9:17) 5-J.Myers 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
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Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EPp(convert) 71%
(7:41) 17-B.Baringer punts 41 yards to SEA 18, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
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Q3 SEA 4th & 8 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(5:24) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to NE 33, Center-41-C.Stoll. 25-M.Jones pushed ob at SEA 48 for 19 yards (4-M.Dickson). ** Injury Update: SEA-48-T.Knight has returned to the game. PENALTY on NE-24-D.Pettus, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 37.
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Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(3:45) 17-B.Baringer punts 46 yards to SEA 21, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
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Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(2:08) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to NE 27, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-28-N.Pritchett.
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Q4 SEA 4th & 11 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(10:55) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to NE 4, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-32-V.Jones.
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Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%
(5:38) 5-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.