Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 67

New England Patriots 0 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(9:23) 17-B.Baringer punts 38 yards to SEA 29, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. ** Injury Update: NE-48-J.Tavai has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.53 EP
68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 67, worth -3.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model