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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 67

New England Patriots 0 – Seattle Seahawks 12

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 17-B.Baringer punts 46 yards to SEA 21, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.14 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 67, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 25, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model