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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 42

Seattle Seahawks 6 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to NE 2, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-32-V.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.47 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.95 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP