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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 59

New England Patriots 0 – Seattle Seahawks 12

What Actually Happened

(7:41) 17-B.Baringer punts 41 yards to SEA 18, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.34 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 59, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP