Fourth-Down Analyzer
Every 4th-down decision from every game this week, priced in expected points by the same submodels shown on each game's own page, just gathered here one week at a time instead of one game at a time. The objective: see which calls matched what the numbers say and which ones cost the most, across the whole week at a glance.
-
Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(12:47) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 63 yards to BAL 2, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-L.Wester to BAL 21 for 19 yards (31-D.McMillon; 41-C.Edmonds).
-
Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 7Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%
(4:59) 33-T.Loop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
-
Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%
(:04) 25-A.Szmyt 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
-
Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 21%
(12:51) 11-J.Stout punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.
-
Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(10:26) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to BAL 13, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-L.Wester MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CLE-9-G.Delpit at BAL 6.
-
Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%
(8:47) 25-A.Szmyt 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
-
Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 78%
(1:02) 25-A.Szmyt 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
-
Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60%
(:35) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to CLE 6, Center-46-N.Moore. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 11 for 5 yards (39-K.Jackson).
-
Q3 BAL 4th & 5 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(12:54) 11-J.Stout punts 48 yards to CLE 12, Center-46-N.Moore. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 25 for 13 yards (54-C.Martin).
-
Q3 BAL 4th & 14 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 38%
(5:13) 11-J.Stout punts 26 yards to CLE 17, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.
-
Q3 CLE 4th & 20 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(1:11) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to BAL 25, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-L.Wester to BAL 32 for 7 yards (50-R.Sunahara).
-
Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%
(14:09) 33-T.Loop 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
-
Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 40Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 46%
(11:01) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback. Cleveland challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
-
Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 82%
(5:03) 33-T.Loop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
-
Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 35 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 61%
(2:39) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews right end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 25 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.85 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 83%
(1:02) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass incomplete short right to 85-D.Njoku (0-R.Smith) [41-D.Jones].
-
Q1 ATL 4th & 14 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(13:07) 13-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to CAR 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 27 for 9 yards (84-F.Franks).
-
Q1 CAR 4th & 2 at the 42Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 57%
(9:23) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 17-X.Legette to ATL 20 for 22 yards (24-A.Terrell).
-
Q1 CAR 4th & 14 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(1:07) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to ATL 10, Center-44-J.Jansen. 14-J.Agnew MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at ATL 5.
-
Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%
(:28) 10-R.Fitzgerald 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
-
Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 8Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%
(8:15) 9-B.Young sacked at ATL 9 for -1 yards (55-K.Elliss).
-
Q3 ATL 4th & 5 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(5:20) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to CAR 21, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 23-T.Etienne.
-
Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 95%
(1:01) 10-R.Fitzgerald 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
-
Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EPp(convert) 61%
(12:19) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to CAR 16, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 23-T.Etienne.
-
Q4 CAR 4th & 14 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(10:22) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to ATL 18, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-21-N.Scott.
-
Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(8:01) 13-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to CAR 7, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.
-
Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 67Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71%
(5:13) 5-R.Dowdle left guard to CAR 35 for 2 yards (36-R.Harrison).
-
Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 56 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70%
(3:05) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 39 for -5 yards (94-L.London). CAR-9-B.Young was injured during the play.
-
Q4 ATL 4th & 5 at the 34 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 75%
(2:48) 45-Z.Gonzalez 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
-
Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 59 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(1:54) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 0-J.Sanders to ATL 49 for 10 yards (31-X.Watts).
-
Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 27 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 86%
(:21) 45-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
-
Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 52Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 32%
(10:26) 17-R.Wright punts 42 yards to CHI 10, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.
-
Q1 CHI 4th & 9 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(9:30) 19-T.Taylor punts 53 yards to MIN 36, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.
-
Q1 MIN 4th & 7 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(8:00) 17-R.Wright punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.
-
Q1 CHI 4th & 9 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(6:34) 19-T.Taylor punts 57 yards to MIN 22, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-M.Price to MIN 40 for 18 yards (92-D.Hardy; 46-S.Daly).
-
Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%
(2:13) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
-
Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EPp(convert) 51%
(14:56) 19-T.Taylor punts 45 yards to MIN 12, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 4-M.Price. PENALTY on CHI-39-J.Blackwell, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 12.
-
Q2 MIN 4th & 4 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(13:27) 17-R.Wright punts 41 yards to CHI 26, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.
-
Q2 CHI 4th & 5 at the 20Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 93%
(2:04) 8-C.Santos 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
-
Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74%
(:21) 19-T.Taylor punts 50 yards to MIN 21, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-M.Price to MIN 39 for 18 yards (48-D.Jackson; 21-T.Homer).
-
Q3 CHI 4th & 7 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 71%
(10:36) 8-C.Santos 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
-
Q3 MIN 4th & 7 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(7:28) 17-R.Wright punts 52 yards to CHI 15, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 20 for 5 yards (13-T.Felton; 37-T.Thomas).
-
Q3 CHI 4th & 3 at the 15Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 96%
(2:15) 8-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
-
Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EPp(convert) 62%
(1:14) 17-R.Wright punts 56 yards to CHI 15, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at CHI 21 for 6 yards (37-T.Thomas).
-
Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 27Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 86%
(8:13) 8-C.Santos 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
-
Q4 MIN 4th & 8 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(7:25) 17-R.Wright punts 45 yards to CHI 18, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.
-
Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 48 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 42%
(3:21) 19-T.Taylor punts 33 yards to MIN 15, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 4-M.Price.
-
Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 55 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(1:59) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right to 3-J.Addison to 50 for 5 yards (24-N.McCloud) [49-T.Edmunds].
-
Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 31 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 80%
(:04) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
-
Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 62Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74%
(2:16) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward up the middle to PIT 39 for 1 yard (49-B.Carter; 42-O.Burks). Cincinnati challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
-
Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 54Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EPp(convert) 56%
(:18) 3-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to CIN 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.
-
Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 42%
(10:58) 8-R.Rehkow punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.
-
Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 73Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EPp(convert) 59%
(9:19) 3-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to CIN 26, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-10-R.Wilson.
-
Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(8:27) 8-R.Rehkow punts 61 yards to PIT 11, Center-46-W.Wagner. 19-C.Austin to PIT 23 for 12 yards (43-J.Giles-Harris).
-
Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(5:11) 3-C.Waitman punts 42 yards to CIN 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 15-C.Jones pushed ob at CIN 17 for 4 yards (50-M.Harrison).
-
Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(2:03) 8-R.Rehkow punts 55 yards to PIT 4, Center-46-W.Wagner. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 7 for 3 yards (26-T.Anderson).
-
Q2 PIT 4th & 7 at the 7Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%
(:13) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
-
Q3 CIN 4th & 5 at the 25Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 84%
(11:58) 2-E.McPherson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
-
Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 12Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 96%
(4:20) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
-
Q4 CIN 4th & 1 at the 15 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.29 EPp(convert) 67% p(FG) 94%
(:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete short right to 5-T.Higgins (42-J.Pierre).
-
Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EPp(convert) 54%
(13:33) 5-B.Anger punts 44 yards to LV 24, Center-44-T.Sieg. 1-T.Tucker to LV 31 for 7 yards (89-B.Spann-Ford; 38-A.Clark).
-
Q1 LV 4th & 6 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 44%
(10:36) 6-A.Cole punts 43 yards to DAL 4, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-27-T.McCollum.
-
Q1 LV 4th & 12 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%
(7:59) 8-D.Carlson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
-
Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 32Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 79%
(5:41) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
-
Q1 LV 4th & 20 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 86%
(2:06) 8-D.Carlson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
-
Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 5Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%
(5:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 93%
(:04) 8-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
-
Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(13:35) 6-A.Cole punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.
-
Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 53Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 30%
(4:04) 2-A.Jeanty right tackle to LV 49 for 2 yards (92-Q.Williams; 35-M.Liufau).
-
Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 13Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 96%
(14:14) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles left guard to DAL 6 for 7 yards (27-R.Steward).
-
Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 54Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 42%
(11:56) 5-B.Anger punts 49 yards to LV 5, Center-44-T.Sieg. 1-T.Tucker to LV 2 for -3 yards (38-A.Clark; 35-M.Liufau).
-
Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 4 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%
(3:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 88-C.Lamb.
-
Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 86 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73%
(2:36) 7-G.Smith sacked at LV 6 for -8 yards (97-O.Odighizuwa).
-
Q1 PHI 4th & 14 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(12:28) 10-B.Mann punts 42 yards to DET 15, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 11-K.Raymond to DET 14 for -1 yards (57-C.Adomitis).
-
Q1 PHI 4th & 8 at the 9Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%
(9:47) 4-J.Elliott 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.
-
Q1 DET 4th & 16 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(8:31) 3-J.Fox punts 55 yards to PHI 30, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-49-H.Hatten. PENALTY on PHI-54-J.Trotter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 30.
-
Q1 PHI 4th & 2 at the 58Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EPp(convert) 62%
(5:46) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to DET 12, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 11-K.Raymond to DET 12 for no gain (7-K.Ringo).
-
Q1 DET 4th & 11 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 37%
(1:25) 3-J.Fox punts 30 yards to PHI 15, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 87-X.Gipson.
-
Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(14:54) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to DET 39, Center-57-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.
-
Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 52Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73% p(FG) 21%
(13:07) (No Huddle) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to DET 48 for no gain (97-M.Ojomo).
-
Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 29%
(12:46) 10-B.Mann punts 28 yards to DET 20, Center-57-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond. PENALTY on PHI-54-J.Trotter, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at DET 20.
-
Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 57Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64%
(11:22) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 15-G.Stuard. 15-G.Stuard up the middle to DET 43 for no gain (58-J.Hunt).
-
Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 16Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 94%
(6:06) 4-J.Elliott 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.
-
Q3 DET 4th & 5 at the 32Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 72%
(12:19) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 1-J.Williams.
-
Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(10:37) 10-B.Mann punts 40 yards to DET 28, Center-57-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.
-
Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%
(5:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 14-A.St. Brown [50-J.Phillips].
-
Q3 PHI 4th & 15 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 21%
(3:09) 10-B.Mann punts 41 yards to DET 11, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 11-K.Raymond to DET 15 for 4 yards (57-C.Adomitis; 7-K.Ringo).
-
Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 37%
(1:18) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 14-A.St. Brown.
-
Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 30Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 76%
(10:20) 4-J.Elliott 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.
-
Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(9:16) 3-J.Fox punts 46 yards to PHI 15, Center-49-H.Hatten. 87-X.Gipson MUFFS catch, touched at PHI 15, ball out of bounds at PHI 15.
-
Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(6:25) 10-B.Mann punts 48 yards to DET 15, Center-57-C.Adomitis, downed by PHI-28-W.Shipley.
-
Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(5:12) 3-J.Fox punts 38 yards to PHI 20, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 87-X.Gipson.
-
Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 71 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73%
(3:00) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 29 for no gain (46-J.Campbell; 53-T.Nowaske).
-
Q4 DET 4th & 17 at the 36 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 62%
(2:03) 39-J.Bates 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
-
Q1 GB 4th & 11 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 25%
(8:20) 19-D.Whelan punts 34 yards to NYG 15, Center-42-M.Orzech. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 15 for no gain (42-M.Orzech; 16-B.Melton).
-
Q1 NYG 4th & 9 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(6:26) 12-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to GB 38, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-36-R.Payton.
-
Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56%
(12:37) 12-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to GB 26, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 87-R.Doubs to GB 39 for 13 yards (46-Z.Barnes). PENALTY on GB-55-K.Enagbare, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 26.
-
Q2 GB 4th & 16 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(:25) 19-D.Whelan punts 40 yards to NYG 28, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.
-
Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 64Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(9:34) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 26-D.Singletary. 26-D.Singletary left guard to NYG 38 for 2 yards (58-I.McDuffie; 95-D.Wyatt).
-
Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 55Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(7:24) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 89-I.Hodgins to GB 43 for 12 yards (25-K.Nixon) [1-M.Parsons].
-
Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 10Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 97%
(2:02) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at GB 17 for -7 yards (sack split by 1-M.Parsons and 58-I.McDuffie).
-
Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 75Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 66%
(:29) 19-D.Whelan punts 60 yards to NYG 15, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.
-
Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 22Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57% p(FG) 88%
(9:02) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 89-I.Hodgins to GB 9 for 13 yards (25-K.Nixon).
-
Q4 GB 4th & 9 at the 79 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(:21) 19-D.Whelan punts 61 yards to NYG 18, Center-42-M.Orzech. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 35 for 17 yards (42-M.Orzech).
-
Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%
(8:24) 10-D.Mills sacked at TEN 12 for -11 yards (50-C.Barton).
-
Q1 TEN 4th & 15 at the 38Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 61%
(:55) 6-J.Slye 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
-
Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 30%
(13:42) 6-T.Townsend punts 36 yards to TEN 14, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.
-
Q2 TEN 4th & 11 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(10:00) 3-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to HOU 24, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 32 for 8 yards (21-M.Robinson). PENALTY on HOU-11-T.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 24.
-
Q2 HOU 4th & 15 at the 38Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 28% p(FG) 61%
(2:59) 6-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Touchback.
-
Q2 TEN 4th & 9 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(1:56) 3-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to HOU 36, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Noel to HOU 38 for 2 yards (30-K.Brooks).
-
Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EPp(convert) 56%
(1:00) 6-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to TEN 17, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 17-C.Dike MUFFS catch, touched at TEN 23, recovered by TEN-33-C.Gray at TEN 21. TEN-17-C.Dike was injured during the play.
-
Q2 TEN 4th & 9 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(:20) 3-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to HOU 33, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Noel to HOU 35 for 2 yards (30-K.Brooks).
-
Q3 TEN 4th & 2 at the 28Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 82%
(10:49) 6-J.Slye 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
-
Q3 TEN 4th & 3 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(6:01) 3-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to HOU 14, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.
-
Q3 HOU 4th & 5 at the 23Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 89%
(1:36) 42-M.Wright 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
-
Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 25Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EPp(convert) 70% p(FG) 87%
(12:03) 42-M.Wright 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
-
Q4 TEN 4th & 11 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(10:38) 3-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to HOU 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 38 for 11 yards (88-D.Martin-Robinson).
-
Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EPp(convert) 52%
(9:40) 6-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to TEN 11, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 12-M.Kinsey ran ob at TEN 12 for 1 yard.
-
Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(7:23) 3-J.Hekker punts 62 yards to HOU 23, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 46 for 23 yards (48-J.Bachie).
-
Q4 HOU 4th & 12 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(5:05) 6-T.Townsend punts 51 yards to TEN 5, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.
-
Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%
(7:39) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
-
Q1 KC 4th & 10 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(6:38) 14-M.Araiza punts 52 yards to DEN 9, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at KC 21 for 70 yards (30-C.Roland-Wallace). PENALTY on KC-38-K.Knowles, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 21.
-
Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%
(4:56) 3-W.Lutz 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
-
Q1 KC 4th & 9 at the 12Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%
(:52) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
-
Q2 DEN 4th & 12 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(14:21) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 58 yards to KC 4, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 81-N.Remigio to KC 11 for 7 yards (46-A.Prentice).
-
Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 12Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 96%
(4:41) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
-
Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(3:11) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 44 yards to KC 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
-
Q2 KC 4th & 8 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(1:54) 14-M.Araiza punts 61 yards to DEN 27, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.
-
Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EPp(convert) 71%
(:37) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 52 yards to KC 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 81-N.Remigio to KC 24 for 12 yards (26-D.Key).
-
Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 59Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 44%
(:02) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 32 for -9 yards (29-J.McMillian).
-
Q4 DEN 4th & 11 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 92%
(12:54) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
-
Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(8:18) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 57 yards to KC 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
-
Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 80Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EPp(convert) 65%
(6:41) 14-M.Araiza punts 59 yards to DEN 21, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 45 for 24 yards (54-L.Chenal).
-
Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 36 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 68%
(4:15) 3-W.Lutz 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
-
Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 69Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EPp(convert) 64%
(13:37) 16-J.Scott punts 57 yards to JAX 12, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.
-
Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 41Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 52%
(8:17) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to 3-J.Meyers.
-
Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 23Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 89%
(3:35) 11-C.Dicker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
-
Q2 LAC 4th & 15 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(13:04) 16-J.Scott punts 51 yards to JAX 33, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.
-
Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 66%
(6:32) 33-B.Tuten right end to LAC 32 for 4 yards (52-K.Mack).
-
Q2 LAC 4th & 7 at the 42Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 50%
(:29) 16-J.Scott punts 41 yards to JAX 1, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-33-D.Leonard.
-
Q3 LAC 4th & 8 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(6:08) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to JAX 24, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-33-D.Leonard.
-
Q4 LAC 4th & 8 at the 63Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 40%
(10:31) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short right to 38-T.Williams to LAC 37 for no gain (26-An.Johnson).
-
Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 30Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 78%
(8:07) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at LAC 34 for -4 yards (43-T.Dye). FUMBLES (43-T.Dye), touched at LAC 37, RECOVERED by LAC-48-B.Dupree at JAX 49. 48-B.Dupree to JAX 47 for 2 yards (76-E.Cleveland). FUMBLES (76-E.Cleveland), ball out of bounds at JAX 47. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 80-Q.Morris (43-T.Dye).
-
Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 32Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 75%
(6:08) (No Huddle) 5-T.Lance up the middle to JAX 31 for 1 yard (47-D.Gardeck; 95-B.Green).
-
Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 31Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EPp(convert) 32% p(FG) 77%
(5:12) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance sacked at JAX 38 for -7 yards (91-A.Armstead).
-
Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 53 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 23%
(2:51) 55-C.Edoga reported in as eligible. 36-L.Allen up the middle to LAC 41 for 12 yards (92-J.Eboigbe). PENALTY on LAC-53-D.Phillips, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 41.
-
Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 18 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EPp(convert) 55% p(FG) 93%
(:31) 55-C.Edoga reported in as eligible. 36-L.Allen up the middle to LAC 11 for 7 yards (40-K.Williamson).
-
Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61% p(FG) 60%
(3:56) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas to NYJ 31 for 7 yards (21-B.Stephens).
-
Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(12:52) 14-A.McNamara punts 45 yards to NE 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
-
Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(6:14) 14-A.McNamara punts 41 yards to NE 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
-
Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(3:31) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to NYJ 14, Center-47-J.Ashby. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 31 for 17 yards (41-B.Schooler). PENALTY on NYJ-35-D.Clark, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at NYJ 14.
-
Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 85Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EPp(convert) 61%
(1:55) 14-A.McNamara punts 44 yards to NE 41, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
-
Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(14:17) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to NYJ 13, Center-47-J.Ashby. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 32 for 19 yards (91-E.Ponder).
-
Q4 NE 4th & 13 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 85%
(12:11) 36-A.Borregales 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
-
Q4 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(9:17) 14-A.McNamara punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.
-
Q4 NE 4th & 15 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(7:43) 17-B.Baringer punts 47 yards to NYJ 16, Center-47-J.Ashby. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 15 for -1 yards (22-C.Woods).
-
Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%
(6:38) 36-A.Borregales 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
-
Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 15 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 95%
(2:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass incomplete short right to 89-J.Ruckert (24-D.Pettus).
-
Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 8Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%
(12:12) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 89-T.Higbee.
-
Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%
(8:41) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q1 SEA 4th & 8 at the 39Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 64%
(6:36) 5-J.Myers 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 35Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 73%
(1:41) 23-K.Williams left tackle to SEA 1 for 34 yards (3-N.Emmanwori).
-
Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 12Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%
(9:07) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q2 LA 4th & 9 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(7:56) 42-E.Evans punts 44 yards to SEA 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at SEA 24 for 9 yards (22-B.Corum). PENALTY on SEA-1-D.Kendrick, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at SEA 15.
-
Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 8Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 98%
(1:22) Direct snap to 88-A.Barner. 88-A.Barner right guard to LA 7 for 1 yard (55-B.Fiske; 48-O.Speights).
-
Q2 SEA 4th & 3 at the 3Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 99%
(:04) 5-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q3 SEA 4th & 6 at the 11Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%
(8:05) 5-J.Myers 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q3 LA 4th & 13 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(6:01) 42-E.Evans punts 44 yards to SEA 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 31 for 20 yards (51-T.Reeder).
-
Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EPp(convert) 73%
(3:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to LA 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 23-K.Williams.
-
Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EPp(convert) 74%
(1:28) 42-E.Evans punts 31 yards to SEA 37, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.
-
Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 45Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 50%
(9:38) 42-E.Evans punts 32 yards to SEA 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
-
Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 80Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 58%
(8:11) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to LA 25, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-28-N.Pritchett.
-
Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 58%
(6:07) 42-E.Evans punts 52 yards to SEA 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
-
Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 51 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 35%
(1:50) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to SEA 1, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.
-
Q1 ARI 4th & 10 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(12:09) 39-P.O'Donnell punts 31 yards to SF 30, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-25-Z.Collins.
-
Q1 SF 4th & 10 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(3:03) 7-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to ARI 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 4-G.Dortch to SF 44 for 40 yards (59-C.Robinson; 46-J.Weeks).
-
Q1 ARI 4th & 6 at the 40Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 62%
(1:00) 38-C.Ryland 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell.
-
Q2 ARI 4th & 8 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%
(6:34) 38-C.Ryland 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell.
-
Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 43Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 55%
(5:23) 7-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to ARI 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-33-S.Neal.
-
Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 84Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EPp(convert) 66%
(2:59) 39-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to SF 39, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 9-S.Moore.
-
Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 82%
(1:06) 18-E.Pineiro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
-
Q3 ARI 4th & 10 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(12:45) 39-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to SF 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 9-S.Moore to SF 32 for 9 yards (25-Z.Collins).
-
Q3 SF 4th & 18 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 84%
(7:32) 18-E.Pineiro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
-
Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 89Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EPp(convert) 66%
(11:59) 7-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to ARI 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 4-G.Dortch to SF 44 for 22 yards (88-J.Tonges). SF-57-L.Gifford was injured during the play. PENALTY on ARI-45-J.Deguara, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 45.
-
Q1 TB 4th & 8 at the 39Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 49%
(10:46) 9-R.Dixon punts 34 yards to BUF 5, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-19-K.Johnson.
-
Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%
(8:57) 4-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
-
Q1 BUF 4th & 4 at the 30Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 74%
(7:13) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis to TB 23 for 7 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
-
Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 4Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%
(12:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q2 BUF 4th & 2 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61% p(FG) 38%
(4:30) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 88-D.Knox INTERCEPTED by 8-S.Dennis (23-T.Smith) at TB 32. 8-S.Dennis to TB 32 for no gain (83-K.Latu). TB-23-T.Smith was injured during the play.
-
Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 43Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 38%
(1:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to BUF 8, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds.
-
Q3 BUF 4th & 9 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(12:58) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to TB 4, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.
-
Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 87Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EPp(convert) 75%
(11:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to BUF 41, Center-86-E.Deckers. 16-M.Hardman to BUF 41 for no gain (32-J.Hayes). FUMBLES (32-J.Hayes), RECOVERED by TB-81-R.Miller at BUF 43.
-
Q3 BUF 4th & 6 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 89%
(5:05) 15-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
-
Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 61Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EPp(convert) 62%
(7:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to BUF 15, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-86-E.Deckers.
-
Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 52 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73% p(FG) 18%
(:50) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 32 yards to TB 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-42-D.Williams.
-
Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 84%
(10:39) 47-R.Patterson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
-
Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 54Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(7:26) (No Huddle) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 80-C.Yankoff to 50 for 4 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).
-
Q1 WAS 4th & 7 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%
(2:40) 16-M.Gay 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
-
Q2 MIA 4th & 13 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 92%
(11:30) 47-R.Patterson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
-
Q2 WAS 4th & 16 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 76%
(7:35) 16-M.Gay 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
-
Q2 MIA 4th & 17 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(5:45) 16-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to WAS 11, Center-49-J.Cardona. 83-J.Lane ran ob at WAS 18 for 7 yards (27-E.Bonner). PENALTY on WAS-35-P.Butler, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 11.
-
Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 96%
(:03) 16-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
-
Q3 MIA 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 99%
(6:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 17-J.Waddle (54-B.Wagner).
-
Q3 WAS 4th & 8 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(2:57) 10-T.Way punts 41 yards to MIA 44, Center-69-T.Ott. 6-M.Washington to MIA 47 for 3 yards (56-K.Medrano).
-
Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%
(6:06) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left to 86-Z.Ertz. ** Injury Update: WAS-76-S.Cosmi has returned to the game.
-
Q4 MIA 4th & 19 at the 87 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(4:21) 16-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to WAS 36, Center-49-J.Cardona. 0-M.Sainristil MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-27-E.Bonner at WAS 42.
-
Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 1 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%
(1:44) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 31-O.Gordon up the middle to WAS 3 for -2 yards (97-E.Goldman, 4-F.Luvu).
-
Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 38 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 65%
(:15) 16-M.Gay 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.