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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 68

Los Angeles Rams 21 – Seattle Seahawks 12

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 42-E.Evans punts 52 yards to SEA 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.29 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 68, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 26, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP