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Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2025-11-16 · 16:05 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

SEA
37.7%
LA
62.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.199 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.128 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Matthew Stafford (LA): +0.222 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LA defense: -0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • SEA defense: -0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 24
–
LA 27
Projected margin: LA by 3 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

SEA

Jalen Sundell C Out Knee
Tory Horton WR Out Groin

LA

Davante Adams WR Questionable Oblique
Kobie Turner DT Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 19
–
LA 21

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:41 TD LA (8:41) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – LA 6
  • Q1 06:36 FG SEA (6:36) 5-J.Myers 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – LA 7
  • Q1 01:06 TD LA (1:06) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SEA-7-U.Nwosu, Defensive Offside, declined. SEA 3 – LA 13
  • Q2 09:07 FG SEA (9:07) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 6 – LA 14
  • Q2 00:04 FG SEA (:04) 5-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 9 – LA 14
  • Q3 08:05 FG SEA (8:05) 5-J.Myers 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 12 – LA 14
  • Q4 14:21 TD LA (14:21) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 12 – LA 20
  • Q4 02:27 TD SEA (2:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-K.Walker right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA-76-G.Zabel was injured during the play. SEA 18 – LA 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%

    (12:12) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 89-T.Higbee.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (8:41) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 8 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 64%

    (6:36) 5-J.Myers 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 73%

    (1:41) 23-K.Williams left tackle to SEA 1 for 34 yards (3-N.Emmanwori).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (9:07) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:56) 42-E.Evans punts 44 yards to SEA 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at SEA 24 for 9 yards (22-B.Corum). PENALTY on SEA-1-D.Kendrick, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at SEA 15.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 98%

    (1:22) Direct snap to 88-A.Barner. 88-A.Barner right guard to LA 7 for 1 yard (55-B.Fiske; 48-O.Speights).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 99%

    (:04) 5-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 6 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

    (8:05) 5-J.Myers 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 13 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:01) 42-E.Evans punts 44 yards to SEA 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 31 for 20 yards (51-T.Reeder).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (3:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to LA 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 23-K.Williams.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (1:28) 42-E.Evans punts 31 yards to SEA 37, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 50%

    (9:38) 42-E.Evans punts 32 yards to SEA 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (8:11) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to LA 25, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-28-N.Pritchett.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (6:07) 42-E.Evans punts 52 yards to SEA 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 35%

    (1:50) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to SEA 1, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.