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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 39

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(6:36) 5-J.Myers 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.94 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model